Funso Olojo, Editor 

The defeat of Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji in the August 15th, 2026  Osun governorship election may ultimately be remembered as more than a failure at the ballot box.

It was, in many respects, the latest chapter in the long-running struggle for control, influence and political direction within the Osun State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Oyebamiji fought a formidable campaign and came within striking distance of Governor Ademola Adeleke.

But when the votes were finally counted, Adeleke emerged with 511,067 votes against Oyebamiji’s 444,815, winning by 66,252 votes and taking 19 of the state’s 30 local government areas, while the APC candidate won 11.

For a party that entered the contest determined to reclaim Osun, the result raises a painful question: Did the APC lose the election at the polling booths—or did it lose vital ground much earlier, in the battles within its own ranks?

The evidence suggests that the answer is a combination of both.

The ghost of 2022

The greatest weakness of Osun APC has always been its inability to completely bury its internal wars.

The party’s 2022 experience remains instructive. The feud between the camps associated with former Governor Gboyega Oyetola and former Governor Rauf Aregbesola fractured the APC before the election.

Political analysts subsequently identified the division within the party as one of the factors that contributed to Oyetola’s defeat by Adeleke.

Four years later, the APC entered another election under the shadow of unresolved factional relationships.

This time, the principal fault lines included the longstanding rivalry involving Oyetola and former deputy governor and former APC National Secretary, Iyiola Omisore.

By mid-2026, the party was still making efforts to reconcile the two camps. A peace meeting reportedly brokered by former APC National Chairman Bisi Akande was held to resolve the lingering rift between Omisore and Oyetola.

That fact alone was significant.
A political party preparing for a major governorship election should ideally be discussing how to defeat its opponent, mobilise voters and sell its candidate.

Instead, substantial political energy was still being expended on reconciling influential actors within the party.

Oyebamiji inherited a fractured and divided house. Oyebamiji himself was not necessarily the cause of the crisis.

Indeed, he emerged as the APC’s consensus candidate after an internal process in which he was widely regarded as acceptable across several political interests within the party.

His candidacy therefore offered the APC an opportunity to put its factional history behind it.

But choosing a consensus candidate and building a genuinely united political machine around him are two different things.

The APC needed all its major blocs to translate their individual structures into one coordinated campaign organisation.

The challenge was not simply getting party leaders to appear together at rallies. It was ensuring that their supporters, ward leaders, local government structures and grassroots networks were equally committed to the same candidate.

That is where the war within became electorally consequential.

The Omisore question

Few issues illustrated the APC’s internal dilemma more clearly than the place of Omisore in the campaign.

Omisore remained an important political figure in Osun APC, but reports of defections by some of his associates raised questions about the extent of his influence and whether the party had successfully integrated all its competing tendencies ahead of the election.

In June, THISDAY reported the resignation of Kolawole Ismaila, described as one of the strong pillars in Omisore’s camp.

Other reports similarly documented defections and resignations from the APC as the election approached.

For an opposition party trying to unseat an incumbent, every prominent defection mattered—not necessarily because one politician alone could determine an election, but because defections could signal deeper dissatisfaction among networks of ward leaders, local organisers and grassroots loyalists.

The danger was that the APC could appear united at the top while remaining fragmented below.

A party fighting yesterday’s battles

The deeper problem was structural.
Osun APC spent years fighting over who controlled the party, who should determine its leadership and which political tendency should dominate its affairs.

That history did not disappear merely because the party selected Oyebamiji.

Indeed, earlier in 2026, THISDAY described the Osun APC as a party “fighting itself”, with its internal disagreement becoming a major political issue ahead of the election.

The irony is striking.
Oyebamiji was campaigning to reclaim the Government House from Adeleke, but the APC itself had not completely resolved the struggle for ownership of the political house.

That distinction matters in Nigerian elections, where victory is often determined not only by the popularity of a candidate but by the efficiency of the party’s grassroots machinery.

Adeleke exploited what APC left unresolved
While the APC wrestled with internal cohesion, Adeleke had an important advantage: incumbency and an established grassroots political structure.

The election ultimately became a battle between a governor seeking another term and an opposition candidate attempting to build a coalition broad enough to remove him.

Oyebamiji ran a competitive race. But defeating an incumbent in Osun required more than an attractive candidate and federal backing.

It required an exceptionally disciplined statewide machine.

The APC had federal visibility and national political weight. But Adeleke had the advantage of incumbency, local visibility and a political family whose influence remains deeply rooted in Osun politics.

The result showed the limits of federal political leverage when it is not matched by complete grassroots cohesion.

The numbers tell the story
The final figures make the defeat difficult to dismiss as a narrow accident.

Adeleke’s 511,067 votes represented a substantial statewide mobilisation.

Oyebamiji’s 444,815 votes were also significant and demonstrated that the APC remained a powerful force in Osun.

But the 66,252-vote gap was large enough to show that the APC still had considerable work to do before it could translate its strength into victory.

The geographical spread was equally revealing.

Adeleke carried 19 LGAs, while Oyebamiji won 11.

The APC was therefore not annihilated. It was beaten by an incumbent who was able to assemble a broader electoral coalition.

That distinction is important because it means the APC’s defeat was not simply a rejection of Oyebamiji.

Rather, the result suggests that the party had the capacity to compete but failed to convert that capacity into the winning coalition required to capture the state.

The lesson from 2022 was not fully learned.
Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of the defeat is that the warning signs had been visible.

In 2022, the APC lost the governorship amid bitter internal divisions. Analysts explicitly linked the party’s internal crisis to its electoral setback.

In 2026, the party again entered an election with questions about internal cohesion.

There were even public calls from within the party for unity.

In May, APC chieftain Olatunbosun Oyintiloye said unity among party members was crucial to securing victory in the August 15 election.

That warning now looks prophetic.
The party apparently understood the problem. What it struggled to achieve was a sufficiently deep and lasting solution.

It would be unfair to blame everything on the APC crisis.

Yet attributing Oyebamiji’s defeat entirely to internal APC politics would be too simplistic.
Elections are multidimensional.

Adeleke’s performance as incumbent mattered. His campaign strategy mattered. His political network mattered.

Voter perceptions of the state government mattered. The candidates’ individual appeal mattered. Local political calculations mattered.

The election was also fought in an environment characterised by intense political competition, defections, court battles, accusations and counter-accusations.

There was also the presence of the ADC’s Najeem Salam, who competed for the same broad political space and potentially affected the distribution of opposition votes.

Therefore, the APC’s internal crisis should be seen not as the only reason for defeat, but as a force that weakened the party’s ability to maximise its other advantages.

The painful irony of the campaign

Perhaps the greatest irony is that Oyebamiji had entered the race as a unifying figure.
His emergence was meant to provide the APC with a candidate around whom the different tendencies could rally.

He was not carrying the baggage of the old political wars in the same way as some of the party’s older combatants.

But a candidate can only unite a party to the extent that the party’s leaders are prepared to subordinate personal ambitions to collective victory.

That appears to have been the central challenge.

The APC needed its leaders to make Oyebamiji’s victory bigger than their individual political calculations.

The result suggests that the process was incomplete.The real loser may be the old APC structure.

Oyebamiji has lost the governorship election, but the larger question concerns the future of Osun APC.

The party remains competitive. Its candidate secured 444,815 votes—an impressive figure that shows the APC cannot be dismissed in Osun politics.

But the defeat has exposed a fundamental weakness. The APC cannot continue to approach every governorship election as another contest between old factions.

If the party wants to win in Osun in the January Presidential election and other future elections, it must move from factional politics to institutional politics.

That means building a party structure in which ward leaders matter as much as political godfathers; where defeated aspirants genuinely work for the candidate; where former office holders do not operate parallel structures; and where reconciliation happens months before an election—not weeks before polling day.

Oyebamiji’s defeat is therefore a warning.
The APC’s problem in Osun is not a shortage of politicians.

It is a shortage of political cohesion.
The party has influential personalities, experienced former governors, ministers, senators, former national officers and a large grassroots base.

Yet these assets become liabilities when they are deployed in competing directions.

The August 15 election has once again demonstrated a brutal rule of Nigerian politics: A divided opposition can have the better candidate and still lose to an incumbent.

Oyebamiji came close. But close was not enough.

Adeleke’s 511,067 votes against Oyebamiji’s 444,815 have now written another chapter in Osun’s political history.

For the APC, the message from the electorate is unmistakable.

The party cannot keep fighting yesterday’s battles and expect to win tomorrow’s election.

If Osun APC fails to settle its internal wars, rebuild trust among its factions and create a genuinely united grassroots structure, the defeat of Oyebamiji may not be remembered as an isolated electoral setback.

It could become a pattern.
And that would make the real casualty of the August 15 election not Bola Oyebamiji alone but the APC’s unfinished struggle to become a truly united political force in Osun.

– Says no political ambition is worth the blood of any citizen

Funso Olojo, Editor

The governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the August 15th governorship election in Osun State, Asiwaju Bola Oyebamiji, has lamented what he described as the stagnation of development in the state despite receiving between ₦16 billion and ₦17 billion in monthly federal allocations.

Speaking during an interactive session with journalists in Osogbo on Sunday, August 2nd, 2026, Oyebamiji argued that Osun State has witnessed a significant increase in federal allocations since the inauguration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu but said residents have little to show for the huge inflow of funds.

He contrasted the performance of the current administration with previous APC-led governments in the state, insisting that the administrations of former governors Rauf Aregbesola and Adegboyega Oyetola delivered more impactful projects despite operating with far fewer financial resources.

“This state has been receiving between ₦16 billion and ₦17 billion monthly since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu came on board.

“What has this administration been doing with the money?” he asked.

“You can go around the capital city of Osogbo and across the entire state and you’ll barely find projects to justify these funds. The current administration has not held a single executive meeting since its inauguration”

Oyebamiji said effective governance requires broad participation, transparency and accountability, stressing that government exists to serve the people rather than political interests.

Drawing from management principles, he said successful administrations thrive on collective decision-making and shared ownership of development goals.

“In management, there is management by objectives, which means getting everyone involved. Running the government is for the people,” he said.

The APC candidate pledged that, if elected, his administration would prioritise security, citizens’ welfare, prudent management of public resources and people-centred development.

“According to him, restoring public confidence in government requires leaders who place the lives of citizens above politics and ensure that every public fund translates into visible improvements in the lives of the people.

He also declared that no political ambition or public office is worth the loss of a single life, stressing that the protection of lives and property would remain the cornerstone of his administration.

“There is no position that is worth killing a soul. The welfare of the people and the security of the people are the main variables in my governance. Every other thing is complementary,” he said.

Oyebamiji further promised to pursue an inclusive style of governance anchored on listening to citizens and responding to their unique needs rather than imposing policies from the top.

According to him, artisans, civil servants, traders, market women and other groups face different socio-economic challenges that require tailored government interventions.

“The needs of artisans are different from those of civil servants and marketers. Good leadership starts by understanding these needs and addressing them.

“We need to listen to these categories of people and run an inclusive government,” he added.

Funso Olojo, Editor 

As the clock ticks toward the August 15th, 2026 governorship election in Osun State, the political atmosphere has become charged with anticipation.

Across markets, palaces, campuses and community squares, one question echoes repeatedly: Can Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO) return the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Government House in Osogbo?

For Oyebamiji, the journey has been one of preparation, experience and political patience.

Having served as Commissioner for Finance in Osun State and later as Managing Director of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), he has built a reputation among supporters as a technocrat with administrative experience.

His campaign has focused heavily on economic revival, infrastructure development, job creation and the implementation of what he calls the “Prosperity Agenda.”

The APC candidate also enters the race with significant institutional backing. The party has deployed a high-powered national campaign council, while senior party leaders have repeatedly described the Osun election as strategically important.

Party faithful believe this level of mobilisation could strengthen the APC’s grassroots efforts across the state’s 30 local government areas.

Beyond party structures, Oyebamiji has sought to connect directly with voters through extensive consultations with traditional rulers, artisans, traders, youth groups and religious organisations.

His campaign has projected him as a consensus builder capable of uniting diverse interests behind a common development agenda.

Yet, the road to victory is anything but straightforward.

Incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke remains a formidable opponent with the advantages of incumbency and an established political base.

Elections in Osun have historically been fiercely contested, and recent political history demonstrates that voter sentiment can shift rapidly during campaigns.

For Oyebamiji, several factors could shape his electoral fortunes:

The APC’s ability to maintain unity and mobilise supporters across the state.

The public’s assessment of his policy proposals compared with those of the incumbent.

Voter turnout, especially among young people and first-time voters.

The conduct of peaceful, credible and transparent elections by all stakeholders.

As election day approaches, political observers generally agree that the contest remains highly competitive.

While the APC believes Oyebamiji’s campaign momentum and broad endorsements could translate into electoral success, the final verdict belongs solely to the people of Osun State when they cast their votes on August 15.

In the end, democracy is not decided by campaign rallies, endorsements or political projections. It is decided by ballots.

If Oyebamiji succeeds in convincing enough voters that his vision offers a better future for Osun, he could emerge victorious.

The latest electorial poll recently conducted in Osun state suggests that Oyebamiji has a higher chance of becoming the next governor of the state with 65 percent poll forecast.

Until then, the story of Osun 2026 remains one of hope, intense competition and the enduring power of the people’s vote.