While Dryad welcomed the significant decline in 2021 of incidents in the region, often involving the violent armed boarding of vessels and the kidnap and ransom of crews, it questioned whether the risk to ships and crews has been reduced.

In 2021, overall incidents of piracy and maritime crime throughout West Africa declined by 54% compared to 2020,  Dryad noted in a recent analysis of maritime security in West Africa.

The overall reduction in reported incidents in 2021 is attributed to a decline in activity in the Gulf of Guinea region which saw reported incidents decrease from 81 in 2020 to 34 in 2021.

“In assessing trend data alone across the past 11 months, it would be easy, but false, to conclude that a reduction in numbers is indicative of a decline in the threat from piracy and maritime crime in West Africa,” writes Dryad Global’s Head of Intelligence,  Munro Anderson.

Anderson believes that only when capability, opportunity, and intent are disrupted that a sustained reduction in threat is likely to be achieved.

When looking at the reasons for the drop in piracy off West Africa, Dryad sees a significant development being the launch of Nigeria’s highly anticipated ‘Integrated National Security and Waterways Protection Infrastructure programme’, also known as the ‘Deep Blue Project’ (DBP).

Further significant development within Nigeria is the launching of the ‘Suppression of Piracy and other Maritime Offenses (SPOMO) Act’ passed by its National Assembly in 2019, providing a dedicated legislative framework through which to support the prosecution of maritime crime and piracy.

Nigeria has to date shown a willingness to publicly signpost the successful implementation of the SPOMO Act.

“The DBP and corresponding legislative reform have placed Nigeria in a definitive position of leadership in the fight against piracy and maritime crime within the Gulf of Guinea.

In seeking to explain the steep decline in piracy throughout the Gulf of Guinea, Dryad looked at the role of intent, which it said is primarily driven by poverty.

Anderson believed that additional security resources seldom deter pirates and in Somalia, groups of disenfranchised young men were only incentivised away from piracy following the launch of onshore programmes of economic development and reform.

“Throughout 202,  there has been little substantive improvement in these core conditions throughout the disparate communities of Niger Delta states.

“Consequently, without improvement in the conditions onshore that create a fertile setting for piracy, it is near impossible to argue that there has been any alteration or deterrence against individuals’ intent to engage in piracy” Dryad declared.

Piracy is essentially a form of serious organised crime and one of its hallmarks is its ability to occupy the ‘grey space’ between legitimate and legal enterprise and criminal network, with members often occupying official positions in business or local government.

With the launch of the $195 million, Deep Blue Project came a substantial level of political focus, both domestic and international.

“It could be argued that the intensity of the political focus, which has created an increasingly hostile environment for would-be piracy sponsors, has reduced piracy, via the ‘back door’ and regardless of cause, the effect is to be welcomed.

In conclusion, Dryad believed the decline in piracy in 2021 should not be seen as indicative of any fundamental or lasting change brought about by any one state or initiative.

Similarly, the IMB urged seafarers to continue exercising caution and vigilance in spite of a drop in attacks.