Economy
Nigeria’s crude faces declining demand as OPEC market share shrinks in 2024
Angola said this month it is leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) from January 2024, following exits by Ecuador in 2020, Qatar in 2019 and Indonesia in 2016.
Angola’s departure will leave the group with 12 members and take its production to below 27 million barrels per day (bpd) – less than 27% of the total global supply of 102 million bpd.
The last time OPEC’s market share fell to 27% was during the 2020 pandemic when global demand dropped by 15-20%. Global demand has since then recovered to record levels, meaning OPEC has lost market share to rivals.
The group produced around half of global crude in the 1970s before the onset of non-OPEC supply sources such as the North Sea.
In later decades, OPEC’s share stood at between 30% and 40% but record output growth from rivals such as the United States has steadily eaten into that share in recent years.
As of November 2023, OPEC’s crude oil output accounted for 27.4% of the total market, down from 32-33% in 2017-2018, according to figures from the group’s monthly reports.
OPEC was founded in 1960 by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela, Iran and Iraq. Angola joined the group in 2007. Since 2017, OPEC has worked with Russia and other non-members as part of the OPEC+ group to manage the market.
Some small producers have joined OPEC in recent years, including Gabon in 2016, Equatorial Guinea in 2017 and Congo in 2018.
OPEC+ is currently cutting around 6 million bpd from its production so the group could in theory raise output to fight for market share.
But it would come with a deep drop in price if demand for crude doesn’t improve.
Some OPEC+ members including Russia have said the group could take additional measures if needed.
Figures from three closely watched oil forecasters – the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC itself – suggest little room for an easing of the cuts in the second quarter.
The EIA sees demand for OPEC crude falling in the second quarter from the first, based on a Reuters calculation.
The IEA sees demand for OPEC crude holding steady while OPEC also sees it falling, albeit from a higher level than the other two forecasters.
OPEC sees its market share increasing in the long run as output falls elsewhere and world demand climbs further.
Its latest World Oil Outlook predicts the group’s total share of the oil market will rise to 40% in 2045 as non-OPEC output starts declining from the early 2030s.
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Economy
Tinubu orders take-off of National Single Window in Q1 2026
Funso OLOJO
The directive was delivered during Tuesday’s fifth steering committee meeting at the State House, Abuja.
President Tinubu was represented by his Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila.
Gbajabiamila said the recent Tax Reform Acts, signed into law in June, underscored the urgency of accelerating reforms and pursuing Nigeria’s $1 trillion economy target.
He highlighted the importance of financial and trade reforms in achieving national economic transformation.
“It’s important that we continue to stay focused on this project. So that at the end of the day, we meet our timelines and achieve the results the President expects.
“As you all are aware, the project is one of the transformative initiatives of Mr. President which we collectively must ensure is effectively and commendably implemented,” Gbajabiamila said.
He emphasised the role of a unified electronic platform in simplifying Nigeria’s import and export operations.According to him, the NSW will boost investment and trade revenues, improve transparency, and strengthen Nigeria’s global business credibility.
Gbajabiamila urged all agencies to refine their targets and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to meet the Phase 1 deadline.“I do expect that since the last meeting of the steering committee which was held on the 8th April, 2025, all stakeholders have operated and actively progressed with all the required KPIs and set targets to ensure that we go live with phase 1 in Q1 2026 as was previously scheduled,” he said.
Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun described the progress as encouraging but stressed the need for swift execution.
He urged a shift from strategy to concrete implementation, calling the project complex but transformational.
Edun urged the committee to improve collaboration and resolve final hurdles to meet the rollout timeline.
Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment Jumoke Oduwole also charged the committee to work diligently and meet the Q1 2026 deadline without fail.
Dr. Zacch Adedeji, Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), thanked the President for consistently supporting the project.
“Thank you on behalf of the steering committee. We thank you for the relentless support that you have given to us.”
“And to all my colleagues here, we can see that the reward for hard work is more work.
“When we started last month, it is now law; the single window is now in the law.”
He asked committee members to stay focused on the mission ahead.
The Director of the National Single Window (NSW) Project, Tola Fakolade, gave a brief overview of the steering committee’s progress toward implementing the project.
“All second quarter 2025 key project milestones have been successfully achieved. And the customisation of the Single window platform has commenced,” he said.
He gave assurances that the committee would meet up with the timelines.
The National Single Window project is a Federal Government initiative to streamline trade processes by creating a centralised electronic platform for importers and exporters.
It is a digital trade facilitation platform expected to accelerate economic growth and facilitate cross-border transactions.
Launched in April 2024, the NSW seeks to consolidate all agencies involved in imports and exports onto a unified electronic portal.
It is expected to reduce trade costs, cut delays, and enhance transparency and efficiency at Nigerian ports.
Committee members include representatives from the Ministry of Trade and Investments, the Ministry of Finance, FIRS, and the Nigeria Customs Service.
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